Analysts predict booming real estate market will slow down - but they’ve been wrong before

Courtesy of Nancy Tucker

A home for sale in Henderson.

Las Vegas Valley home values have soared in recent months, but Southern Nevada gave up its spot as the country’s top growth market.

The region’s median home value was $147,700 in June, up 7.8 percent from March and up 29.4 percent from June 2012, according to a new report from Seattle-based Zillow.

The only market examined by the report with a faster growth rate was Sacramento, Calif. There, home values jumped 8.4 percent from March and 29.5 percent from last June.

Nationally, home values rose 2.4 percent since March and 5.8 percent since June 2012.

Some view rapidly increasing home values as another bubble, but the housing sector is expected to cool off in the coming months, Zillow Senior Economist Svenja Gudell said. She cited slackening investor interest, an uptick in regular buyers and an increased inventory of listings.

Las Vegas home values grew 28 percent year-to-year in May, the fastest pace in the country. Sacramento came in second at 26.1 percent.

“The U.S. housing market as a whole is currently not experiencing a bubble, but in many places it sure must feel like one, with some markets experiencing annual home value appreciation approaching 30 percent,” Gudell said. “Homeowners are feeling a sense of whiplash after years of depreciation, but this kind of market behavior won’t last.”

Zillow analysts predict that home values will continue to rise in the coming year but at a slower pace, both locally and nationally. Las Vegas values are forecasted to grow 8.9 percent by June 2014, compared to 5 percent nationwide.

Then again, Zillow forecasted last summer that Las Vegas home values would rise just 1.4 percent by June 2013 — far below the actual pace of almost 30 percent.

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